Abstract:

Following a short postwar baby boom (1947-1949), Japan's fertility declined dramatically, & mortality improved remarkably. As a consequence of these rapid demographic changes, the age structure of the Japanese population is now shifting to a marked extent. Although Japan's current level of population aging is not yet as advanced as that in many Western industrialized nations, within the next few decades it is expected to become the highest in the world. Here, the impact of Japan's future population aging is analyzed with regard to: (1) future financial requirements for the provision of health care services at the government level; (2) the changing allocative pattern of such government health resources by types of households; & (3) manpower requirements in taking care of elderly patients at the familial level. Projected results using a long-term macroeconomic-demographic-social security model show that Japan is likely to encounter a wide range of adjustment problems in allocating support resources for its elderly until 2025.