Abstract:

Estimating future social service utilization & attendant costs has not played an explicit role in local agency planning until quite recently. Demands for increased control of social service spending, however, suggest that such estimates will play an increasing role. An effort to develop & implement a forecasting capability for local area agencies on aging is presented. After noting the role of forecasting in relation to planning, priorities for forecasting among multiple information requirements (eg, service need, utilization, & costs) are suggested & an exploratory forecasting system based on a computer simulation model that should meet such information requirements is presented. Using historical data from the census as well as client information systems, the model estimates service use rates & costs, thereby generating critical information for short-term future decisions.