Abstract:

Examines questions relating to demographic change (population growth & aging) & its implications for operating a publicly funded health care system in Ontario. An assessment is provided of how prospective population changes alone would affect the share of health care costs in total national income in Canada over the next several decades. Also offered is an analysis of how actual patterns of hospital service provision changed in Ontario over the last decade in response to budgetary restrictions in a period of rising demand for services. A case is made for viewing health care as an integrated system; a description is provided of a set of computer-based models that have been developed to facilitate analysis of the health care system, & illustrative projections are discussed.