Abstract:

It is anticipated that the economic & social costs of projected increased use of long-term care services by the oldest old will be borne by their families & third-party payers, who already supply the bulk of personal care services in the community. However, since use of health services is concentrated among a relatively small group of disabled aged (those aged 85+), efficient planning will require early, reliable identification of those most in need. Using data from the 1982 National Long-Term Care Survey, in which a representative sample of 5,580 disabled persons aged 65+ were interviewed, life table models of individual risk & population aging are extended to allow for differences in the ways health-related needs are satisfied; this provides a framework for discussing changes in the structuring & coverage of various health care programs.