Abstract:

Data drawn from annual finance surveys provide evidence that high growth in the share of the age 65+ population has a significant depressing effect on overall spending change in Oregon cities. The overall negative effect on spending somewhat supports the "Gray Peril" hypothesis: ie, the aged will use their voting strength to advance government services to the elderly, at the expense of other programs. Also, rates of change in police spending are predicted to be high where the proportion of the elderly population is high. However, police protection also is a basic public service, & it may be that the elderly are more willing to support core services that historically have been government provided.